Independents Uninformed but Key to Victory in November

Political researchers have found that independents and soft partisans (voters who lean Democrat or Republican) are woefully under-informed regarding Donald Trump’s criminal indictments and trials. They’ve also found that once those voters learn of the charges behind those trials they are much less likely to support his re-election. Worse in some ways, these voters don’t see Trump’s actions including those on January 6 as an attack on our democracy. In fact, those voters aren’t even clear on what a democracy is.

When doing market or political campaign research organizations use polling to learn how people feel or what they believe about a topic. In order to get a better understanding of why they feel or believe as they do they’ll hold what are called “focus groups”. In a focus group just as in polling the organization tries to select participants that fit their needs. In political polling that is usually registered voters or when an election is close what are defined as likely voters, often those who vote nearly every election. Polling organizations usually try to find a mix of genders, ages, and economic groups that is also representative of the overall population of the area they’re researching, congressional district or state for example. For a focus group the organization may choose from a narrower group in order to better understand how that group thinks and why they might vote a particular way.

In focus groups organized for Navigator Research in three swing states, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, voters who lean Republican or consider themselves independent generally were very disturbed to learn that Trump had been indicted on 91 charges over 4 criminal trials. Participants were also concerned with Trump’s claims of immunity for anything done by the president including the use of the military to murder opponents.

Even some voters who lean Republican cited Fox News as part of the problem regarding the political divide in the country, misinformation, and distrust of media. Unfortunately that has caused many voters to distrust main stream media entirely rather than find more reliable sources. It’s also frightening that the voters participating in the focus groups didn’t have a common understanding of political violence or recognize it beyond the insurrection on January 6, 2021.

The only positive point I see is that for the most part participants in the focus group and hopefully others like them were less likely to support Trump upon learning more about the indictments and criminal trials as well as his claims of total immunity.

It is important to remember that Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. He only won in 2016 because of a relatively small number of votes in a handful of swing states giving him the edge in the electoral college. It will only take a small number of independents and soft Republicans voting for Biden to insure that Trump never again has political power in the United States.

As a Democrat and believer in the peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections I hold out hope that readers of this column and others will reach out to family and friends to insure that they are informed about they recognize the dangers of re-electing Trump.

Published in the Seguin Gazette February 7, 2024

Reasons for Cheer and Caution

Today a new president will take the oath of office, one who doesn’t utter lies in every other sentence, one who is competent, one who respects his oath and the democratic principles and institutions of this nation. Today we reason to look forward to a brighter future.

While I’m certain that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be sworn in today I’m less certain that it will go forward without interruption and perhaps violence. Trump cultists have not given up and the FBI has warned of the potential for an even larger attack on our democracy today. We can hope they are as incompetent as the outgoing president and the January 6^th insurrectionists.

25,000 national guard troops have been called up to protect the inauguration and the FBI is reportedly vetting every one of those troops. There is cause for concern of an attack from the inside because while those troops have sworn to protect and defend the constitution, January 6^th showed that some, like Retired Lt. Colonel Larry Rendall Brock Jr. of Texas, were willing to violate those oaths. Dozens of law enforcement officers from around the country including some in San Antonio and Houston are also under investigation as well. The insurrectionists came within a handful of minutes of taking members of congress hostage. What would have happened to our nation had they been a little quicker?

We are in the midst of a critical time in this nation’s history and our form of government has been put at risk by Republicans including Ted Cruz and other members of the Texas congressional delegation who incited the insurrection and continue to spread lies. The failure of the January 6 assault on the capitol hasn’t stopped Cruz and others from fanning the flames of discontent. Neighbors and relatives of mine still believe the election was stolen even after Republicans in charge of elections in disputed states have insisted that there was no appreciable fraud committed in the election. After Twitter banned Trump, there was a 73% reduction in election misinformation spread on the Internet in a single week.

Unfortunately it isn’t just national figures inciting insurrection, prominent Republicans here in Guadalupe County have made chilling remarks in their social media such as “Mitt Romney needs to be introduced to Mr. Guillotine”. These folks aren’t just sore losers grumbling in their beer. Our community must stand up to them and refuse to allow them to sow discontent and threaten violence to get there way. Not doing so simply sets the stage for future insurrection, perhaps planned and implemented by more competent demagogues who will succeed.

The disgraceful spreaders of conspiracy theories and lies about the validity of elections, from Trump to Ted Cruz to our local leaders must not be allowed influence in the public sphere. Those who have been elected must be unseated in the next election. Those who are seen by neighbors and peers as community leaders must be shamed and their opportunities to spread their seditious speech limited. They must not be invited to speak to groups or have their writings published. Remember censorship is when the government prevents someone from speaking their mind, it is good judgement when community members choose not to provide a bully pulpit for those who would overthrow the legitimately elected government.

Republicans Are Responsible For Insurrection

The insurrection at the nation’s capitol a week ago has brought out a wide range of responses from conservatives but very few have acknowledged a shred of responsibility. YouGov released a survey Thursday last week which found that 45 percent of Republican voters backed the attack on the Capitol building, while 43 percent said they "strongly or somewhat" opposed the protesters' behavior. Six percent of Republicans were unsure while a further 6 percent said they were unaware of the events. The excuses I’ve heard from my neighbors go something like this; violence from any side is unacceptable but I agree with the rioters that the election may have been stolen.

It isn’t just that so many still think the election was stolen, even those that disagree with the violence claim Trump had nothing to do with inspiring they attack. Their denial that he incited the riot and egged the rioters on reminds me of a child denying responsibility for breaking the cookie jar while their hand and face are smeared in cookie crumbs. At the same time they’re blaming Facebook, Twitter, and Google for “censoring” content when it violates their terms of service. It’s only been since the election that the tech giants have begun to at least mark some of Trump’s claims as questionable let alone fact check or block them.

Texas Republicans, like Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Louis Gohmert, were among those who inspired the insurrection in the weeks leading up to it. They and other Republican leaders continue to make public claims of vote rigging without ever presenting any evidence but when lawsuits are filed the only claims are spurious and have nothing to do with the actual validity of the election and are thrown out of court often by Republican and even Trump appointed judges. Not even one of the nine Supreme Court justices where Republicans hold a six to three majority, three of whom are Trump appointees, couldn’t bring themselves to give credence to the falsehoods.

In most cases the claims made Trump’s supporters have been debunked entirely and on the few occasions where there was a shred of truth like the claim that military mail ballots had been thrown out it was thousands or even hundreds, it was three and they were found and counted before the election results were announced. In a case where supporters claimed of dead people voted the nearest they got was one 90+ year old widow of the deceased. The claim was that James Blalock, a deceased WWII vet and retired mailman, voted in the presidential election when in fact his wife who is registered to vote as Mrs. James Blalock is the person in whose name the vote was cast. Some 60 lawsuits have be brought by Trump’s supporters and in every case they’ve been thrown out of court because their claims are either unfounded, spurious, or even if true would affect so few votes as to have no effect on the result.

I’m disgusted and disappointed with many of my neighbors as they claim to want to work with the other side but are unwilling to accept that they and their fellow travelers are the ones causing the division by failing to challenge the falsehoods and their lying leaders.

I’ve begun to have a new appreciation for how Germany fell under the sway of Hitler and the Nazi’s and it isn’t comforting at all.