2018 Election Results Not Bad - Hint at Better 2020

Although nothing much changed in the makeup of Guadalupe County government Texas Republicans shouldn't get too cocky given that Beto O'Rourke lost by just 220,000 votes, the narrowest margin of any state-wide candidate in well over a decade. Overall turnout in this election was nearly twice what it was just four years ago and only 8% less than the 2016 presidential election turnout. O’Rourke got 200,000 votes more than Hillary Clinton did just two years ago while Ted Cruz got 400,000 fewer than Donald Trump.

Beto wasn't alone as Lt. Governor candidate Mike Collier, Attorney General candidate Justin Nelson and Agriculture Commissioner Kim Olson all performed nearly as well. While not every state-wide Democratic candidate performed to those standards it wasn’t just Beto O’Rourke pulling the train. Good candidates running strong campaigns got within striking difference in the mid-terms for the first time in 20 years.

Those aren't the only signs that Texas is changing, two incumbent Republican congressmen, Pete Sessions and John Culberson, lost their seats, and four others are only won by 5% or less. One of those is District 23 running from northwestern San Antonio nearly to El Paso, currently held by Will Hurd, at under 700 votes difference is so close that it may require a recount to confirm the winner.

In the state legislature 2 incumbent Republican state senators, John Huffines and Konni Burton, lost to Democrats along with a dozen Republican held state house members. Other signs that Texas is changing include a switch to a Democratic majority on the State Board of Education and four Courts of Appeal districts also flipped to Democratic majorities due to wins against 18 incumbent Republican judges.

Results like Tuesday’s suggest that the 2020 election will be even more hotly contested than was 2016 if for no other reason that it indicates that Texas could be in play in a presidential election instead of being a considered a guaranteed Republican stronghold. That means a lot more spending of time, money and other resources by both presidential candidates and probably more funds available to candidates from both parties in at least the additional for really close congressional races from this election. If you thought there were a lot of television and radio commercials, mailers, phone calls and text messages this election just wait until 2020.

It won’t just be federal races drawing more funding either as there are 11 more Republican House seats that were close enough to be considered in play in the next election. With the Democrats now holding 67 state House seats it will only take 9 more to for them to attain a majority and be able to choose the Speaker of the House who would set the House agenda. A Democratic House majority would also have a lot more to say about redistricting which will be a major issue to be addressed by the legislature when it then meets in 2021. The main goal of Democrats would be to prevent the outrageous gerrymandering that currently gives Republicans the huge advantages they have with the current maps. You know there’s something fishy when state-wide Democratic candidates received 45-48% of the vote and yet even with this year’s wins they only hold 13 of 36 congressional seats instead of the 16-18 a reasonably drawn map would likely provide.

All this means is that 2020 is likely to be an even more hotly contested election cycle in Texas than even 2018 and within months of today party volunteers will start working once again on registering new voters and identifying likely supporters all over again.

Published in the Seguin Gazette - November 9, 2018

Protecting A Million Texans Requires Your Vote

As if you needed another reason to make time to vote in November think about this, Texas is one of 20 states suing the federal government to take away healthcare from millions of Americans especially middle and lower income Texans. Our Republican Attorney General, Ken Paxton, joined the suit earlier this year in an effort to use the courts to do what Congress chose not to. Paxton is empowered by the fact that Republicans control both houses of the legislature and every statewide office.

The cynical ploy used by the Attorneys General is the claim that since the individual mandate was central to the Affordable Care Act, the fact that Congress repealed it invalidates the entire law. Since 1.2 million Texans are covered through plans purchased via the Exchange created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) having the court decide in favor of killing it will endanger the lives and health of all of them. Of course it won’t have any effect on the 4.5 million Texans denied coverage by Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision not to accept the 90% federally funded Medicaid expansion.

Whether or not Democrats can beat Paxton directly by electing Justin Nelson to replace him or indirectly through electing a majority in one or both houses of the legislature and cutting his budget, it can be done. Readers have three or four ways to protect the healthcare of over a million Texans. They can vote to replace the current Attorney General with Justin Nelson who if elected will certainly withdraw from the suit. They can vote to replace the Governor with Lupe Valdez who can make it known to the legislature that she will veto any budget that continues to fund attacks on the Affordable Care Act. They can vote to replace the incumbent in the House with John Rodgers who would fight to force Paxton to drop the suit by cutting his budget. Rodgers would also demand that the state take the federal money to expand Medicaid which would not only be a boon to those 4.5 million Texans not currently insured, it would also stimulate the economy of the entire state leading to many more jobs and higher paying jobs as well. If you live in the part of Guadalupe County which is in Senate District 25 you can replace the incumbent who is widely recognized one of the worst legislators in Texas with Steve Kling.

On the federal side we have an opportunity to put a stop to Republican efforts to repeal the ACA in whole or in part by taking back one or both houses of Congress. We need to hold onto a House seat by voting for Vicente González so that in other districts where Republican incumbents are in jeopardy of losing their seats we can gain enough to achieve a majority there. This is really important as Republicans in the House are still working to undermine the ACA by any means available. They are also plotting to cut Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid benefits claiming that they are causing a deficit; when in fact that deficit is caused mostly by the tax breaks they just gave big banks and billionaires. A Democratic House majority insures that Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the ACA all continue to be adequately funded.

There is also the very real possibility of replacing one of the Senate’s most unpopular members if we all get out and vote for Beto O’Rourke. If Texas voters flip that seat it will go a long way toward making it possible to win a majority in the Senate.

Vote! Vote! Vote!