Gulf Stream Collapse Catastrophic

Last week climate scientists reported that the Gulf Stream has become unstable and is nearly total collapse. You might remember that the Gulf Stream is the ocean current that sends warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north up the east coast and across the northern Atlantic to western Europe which moderates the winters there. The Gulf Stream is a part of what scientists call the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and it also sends cold but less salty water southward deep in the ocean. If this circulation of warm and cold water should fail as it appears ready to do it could threaten our entire civilization.

The AMOC affects the climate of the east coast of North America as well the coasts of northwestern Africa and Western Europe. Its failure would cause rising sea levels on the U.S. Atlantic coast, threatening numerous cities. That failure could also wreak havoc on the world’s food supply, due to its effect on rainfall from South America to India and West Africa. Just as concerning, would be the effect on the Antarctic ice sheets and the Amazon rainforest which are already in trouble.

Climate scientists aren’t ready to predict when such a catastrophe will occur just that we’re approaching a tipping point and they don’t know how much more it will take to get there.  Given the unknowns the only thing to do is keep CO2 emissions as low as possible in order to minimize overall climate change. Every little bit of CO2 added to the atmosphere further increases the likelihood of this extremely high-impact event occurring.

More than 30% of jobs in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are in agriculture; the way of life of these works revolves around fairly stable climate systems doing what they’re expected to do most of the time. Climate change tossing that out the window by amplifying existing weather patterns of dry spells, then heavy rainfall, then dry spells. Rainfall is becoming either increasingly abundant or in desperately short supply, relative to longtime averages. It’s a classic case of feast or famine and right now, rural farming families across Central America are starving. Some are even taking their families and leaving their homes. Not because they want to but because they have to in order to survive.

If you think immigration is a problem now, wait until severe drought conditions go on for decades in Central and South America as has happened in millennia past and brought down civilizations like the Maya and Aztecs. More than 140 million people across three regions of the world; Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, could be displaced by 2050 due to foreseeable climate impacts like sea-level rise, extreme heat, drought, and crop failures caused by changing farming conditions. That’s not counting those displaced by hurricanes and flooding.

One of the most important reasons I wanted to see Democrats return to the White House and control of Congress was the difference in climate policy between the two parties. I was thrilled when President Biden returned the U.S. to the Paris Climate Accord though I’m frustrated that congress still hasn’t enacted legislation and budgets to actually get moving on our commitments. The longer we wait the higher and steeper a hill we’ll have to climb to get the world out of trouble. It’s past time to act decisively.

Published in the Seguin Gazette - August 11, 2021